11.04.06
The end of “no one could have predicted”
Via AmericaBlog: in fact it was predicted, in detail, based on war games. The AP story:
The U.S. government conducted a series of secret war games in 1999 that anticipated an invasion of Iraq would require 400,000 troops, and even then chaos might ensue.
In its “Desert Crossing” games, 70 military, diplomatic and intelligence officials assumed the high troop levels would be needed to keep order, seal borders and take care of other security needs.
The documents came to light Saturday through a Freedom of Information Act request by the George Washington University’s National Security Archive, an independent research institute and library.
“The conventional wisdom is the U.S. mistake in Iraq was not enough troops,” said Thomas Blanton, the archive’s director. “But the Desert Crossing war game in 1999 suggests we would have ended up with a failed state even with 400,000 troops on the ground.”
There are currently about 144,000 U.S. troops in Iraq, down from a peak of about 160,000 in January.
A spokeswoman for U.S. Central Command, which sponsored the seminar and declassified the secret report in 2004, declined to comment Saturday because she was not familiar with the documents.
The war games looked at “worst case” and “most likely” scenarios after a war that removed then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power. Some are similar to what actually occurred after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003:
— “A change in regimes does not guarantee stability,” the 1999 seminar briefings said. “A number of factors including aggressive neighbors, fragmentation along religious and/or ethnic lines, and chaos created by rival forces bidding for power could adversely affect regional stability.”
— “Even when civil order is restored and borders are secured, the replacement regime could be problematic – especially if perceived as weak, a puppet, or out-of-step with prevailing regional governments.”
— “Iran’s anti-Americanism could be enflamed by a U.S.-led intervention in Iraq,” the briefings read. “The influx of U.S. and other western forces into Iraq would exacerbate worries in Tehran, as would the installation of a pro-western government in Baghdad.”
— “The debate on post-Saddam Iraq also reveals the paucity of information about the potential and capabilities of the external Iraqi opposition groups. The lack of intelligence concerning their roles hampers U.S. policy development.”
— “Also, some participants believe that no Arab government will welcome the kind of lengthy U.S. presence that would be required to install and sustain a democratic government.”
— “A long-term, large-scale military intervention may be at odds with many coalition partners.”
Also at the link: Read the rest of this entry »
Sound-activated switch here
The sound-activated switch is here and now active. The two outlets are activated by clapping either twice (left outlet) or thrice (right outlet). The double clap is considerably slower than a double click, and there’s an odd little pause at the end while the switch waits to see whether there will be a third clap. When there’s not, the light (plugged into the left outlet) goes on (or off, depending on its state).
The nice thing is that it makes it easy to turn the light off (or on) from in bed.
UPDATE: It works so well, I’ve ordered a second for a floor lamp in the living room that’s in an awkward location for turning on and off. I discovered that Amazon has two listings for the device, from different stores: this one has a photo of the device and charges $13.48 for shipping (the item is $17.88), and this one has no photo and charges $7.49 for shipping (the item is $18.88). $5 is a lot to pay just to see a photo of the item. Same device in each case. Just one uses a more expensive shipper… or something.
Kevin Drum states it well
TORTURE AND SECRECY….Majid Khan, currently being held as an enemy combatant at Guantanamo Bay, is not being allowed to speak to his lawyer. Why? Because previously he was detained in one the CIA’s secret overseas prisons and “he may have come into possession of information, including…alternative interrogation techniques.”
“May have come into possession.” Indeed he may have. That’s a very nice use of the passive voice, isn’t it?
Now, Khan may be a cold-blooded killer whose main goal in life is to commit the mass murder of innocent Americans. Then again, he may be guilty of nothing more than yelling “Death to America” on crowded street corners in Karachi. We’ll never know for sure, though, because once you’ve been the subject of government-sanctioned
torturealternative interrogation techniques, you’re automatically forbidden to defend yourself because you might tell people about the very alternative interrogation techniques that were employed against you.This highlights the fundamental corruption of the human soul that torture causes. We know it’s wrong, so not only do we torture prisoners, but we then do what we must to conceal what we’ve done. And then we try to conceal even that. Torture and secrecy, secrecy and torture, world without end.
That’s not America. At least, it shouldn’t be.
Chocolate sushi
![]()
Why not? Via Boing Boing, chocolate accurately copies sushi.
Bush warned weeks ago about nuclear posting
This is good. While Hoekstra blames the NY Times and the IAEA for Hoekstra’s action in pushing for the Iraqi papers (containing information on how to make an atomic bomb) to be posted publicly, it turns out that US scientists had protested about the postings weeks ago—and were ignored, which seems to be the fate for all scientists under the Bush Administration:
Scientists at a U.S. weapons lab complained more than two weeks ago that captured Iraqi documents containing sensitive nuclear information were available on the Web site that the government shut down on Thursday, The New York Times reported on Saturday.
A senior federal official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the Times that scientists at California’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory protested some of the weapons papers on the site to the National Nuclear Security Administration, an arm of the Department of Energy, in October. But the objections “never perked up to senior management,” the Times quoted the official as saying. “They stayed at the mid-levels.”
Managers at the security administration passed the warning to their counterparts at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which oversaw the Web site, the Times said, citing the official. And as a result, according to a nuclear weapons expert, the government pulled two nuclear papers from the Web site last month. The dangers of the documents, which were captured during the war, had been recognized at Livermore and in the wider community of government arms experts, he said.
“Those two documents were on everybody’s list,” the newspaper quoted him as saying.
The Times said federal officials were conducting a review to better understand how and when the warnings had originated and how the bureaucracy had responded.
The Bush administration set up the Web site in March at the urging of Republicans in Congress who said that public access to such materials from Iraq could increase the understanding of the danger posed by Saddam Hussein. It was shut down after the Times inquired about the disclosure of nuclear information and the experts’ complaints. Among documents posted were roughly a dozen that nuclear weapons experts said constituted a basic guide to building an atom bomb.
While Democrats have called for an investigation, the scientists’ two-week-old complaints, as outlined by federal officials on Friday, indicated for the first time that warnings about the site had come from the government’s own arms experts as well as from international weapons inspectors, the report said.
Print your own book plates
Via Lifehacker, a nice selection of book plates for your home library. Print them yourself as needed.
Handbags a hot investment?!
Maybe The Wife is onto something. Look at this:
Good news for handbag addicts.
An overflowing accessories closet is no longer just a purse collection; it’s a well-diversified investment portfolio.
There was a time when a handbag was just a useful pouch for a woman’s most treasured objects. But as women have become increasingly independent, mobile and active, our relationship with accessories changed.
These days, a purse is arguably the most important element in a woman’s wardrobe. It’s a status symbol. It’s a home away from home. It’s a portable office. It’s a trusted friend. It’s a form of self-expression. It’s a little bit of luxury in a hard, hard world.
Perhaps, most importantly to a woman with limited resources, the Perfect Purse can be a smart investment.
The popular auction website eBay has helped create a hot global market for used designer accessories, so a wise purse purchase offers the potential for return on capital. Certain bags have sold for more than their retail value in stores, says Constance White, fashion director of the U.S.-based auction site.
“One of the things that helped put eBay on the map was the Murakami bag, designed by Marc Jacobs and Murakami for Louis Vuitton. You couldn’t get it in stores. So eBay was one of the few places you could get it, and prices went through the roof.”
In other words, it’s a seller’s market. “When it comes to investment bags,” says White, “the prices on eBay rival the prices in stores. The people using eBay to find bags cover the whole range. You’ve got the hard-core fashionista who wants the newest thing. And there’s the fashion editor who wants a bag in a specific colour that isn’t available any more.”
We’ve long considered objects such as a string of pearls or a major watch to be the kind of item worth investing in. Now the handbag has reached such iconic status. Many designer bags these days cost more than $1,000 and even women who are frugal in every other area of life are willing to scrimp to buy the Perfect Purse. Read the rest of this entry »
Security breach at Los Alamos
Oh, man, I hadn’t heard this.
The recent security breach at Los Alamos National Laboratory was very serious, with sensitive materials being taken out of the facility — possibly including information on how to deactivate locks on nuclear weapons, officials tell CBS News.
Officials say there is no evidence the information taken from Los Alamos was sold or transferred to anybody else, but there is no way to be sure right now.
As CBS News correspondent Sharyl Attkisson was the first to report, secret documents apparently taken from the lab were found during a drug raid at a Los Alamos-area home last month. The FBI was called in to investigate.
Multiple sources now tell CBS News that the material includes sensitive weapons-design data.
A federal official who has been briefed on the issue said at least three USB thumb-drives were involved. Those small storage drives contained 408 separate classified documents ranging in importance from Secret National Security Information (pertaining to intelligence) to Secret Restricted Data (pertaining to nuclear weapons).
All of the information came from the classified document video media vault inside the Lab. Federal officials also found 228 pages — printed front and back — of classified documents in the drug trailer during their investigation.
Los Alamos claims to have done a careful and comprehensive analysis of the materials that it believes have been compromised as part of this matter, and has determined that “the majority of the material was classified at the lowest levels and was twenty to thirty years old.”
“None of the documents in question were classified Top Secret,” read a statement released by the lab. “None of the materials included any of the most sensitive nuclear weapons information.”
But one federal official recently briefed on the issue says “It’s devastating.” If a nuclear weapon were stolen, the information “would tell the terrorists everything they need to do to get a weapon to fire.”
Sources say she also had something called Sigma-15 clearance allowing her to access to documents explaining how to deactivate locks on a nuclear weapon.
The woman believed to have taken the information — Jessica Quintana, 22, who owned the trailer — worked in three classified vault rooms across Los Alamos:
- Safeguards and Security (relating to strategic nuclear material control and accountability)
- X-Division (top secret)
- Physics P-Division.
She also had top secret “Q-clearance” with access to all the U.S. underground nuclear test data. Quintana has not been arrested or charged. Her attorney says she took the material home to work and then forgot about it. Read the rest of this entry »
GOP: “Make the rich richer, and stomp on the poor.”
This story about the military pay raise—8.7% for top-ranking officers, 2.2% for troops—shows the GOP Congress doing what it loves to do: give money to the well-to-do and ignore the plight of the poor. What a party.
Conservative = Liar, apparently
Now Condi Rice has been caught in yet another lie—a familiar situation for her:
Two weeks before crucial midterm elections that could tip the balance of power in Congress, Rice has been on a media blitz that appears aimed mainly at conservative media outlets, particularly radio talk shows. Secretary of state is traditionally a nonpartisan position, and Rice’s media itinerary differs sharply from the practice of her predecessors during election campaigns, according to State Department records.
Rice has given nine interviews on radio, starting with three appearances on Oct. 24 during “Radio Day,” when 42 radio hosts, most of them conservatives, were invited to the White House to spread the administration’s message to President Bush’s political base.
In the past two days, Rice has appeared on four radio shows, including that of Ingraham, a best-selling author for her books that attack liberal “elites”; Bill Cunningham, a Cincinnati conservative; and Glenn Beck, another conservative, who appears on nearly 200 stations.
Rice also appeared in the past week on CNBC’s “Kudlow and Company,” hosted by conservative economic commentator Lawrence Kudlow, and “Morning in America,” a radio show hosted by prominent Republican William Bennett. During this 12-day period, the only outlets Rice spoke to that did not have conservative leanings were Bloomberg TV, the Lebanese Broadcasting Corp. and the New York Times.
Many of the hosts lavishly praised Rice and her work as secretary of state. “As an American living in the heartland . . . which beats throughout America, I’m proud to have you as secretary of state,” Cunningham said, urging her to run for president. Beck called her “one of the most remarkable people of our age.”
Generally, the questions on even the conservative shows were devoted to foreign policy, allowing Rice to present a strong defense of the “really visionary” Bush and his policies, such as his “very skillful diplomacy” on the North Korean nuclear crisis. But sometimes the questioning veered toward the partisan, forcing Rice to do a quick tap dance away from the questioner’s opinions.
Kudlow quizzed her about whether she supported Bush’s formulation that terrorists will win if Democrats take control of Congress, which Rice ducked. Then he asked if Democratic control would “disrupt, interfere and stop the processes you’re describing” for leaving Iraq.
“The key to me is that this president has a program for the war on terror and it’s a program that is going to win, and he needs the support of everyone for that program,” Rice answered. “I frankly haven’t heard an alternative posed for how we fight the war on terror except on the offense.”
State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said the confluence of media spots with the election was coincidental. He said frequent appearances on radio and television simply reflect Rice’s style. “In her approach to the job, she believes a big part of the job is to talk about foreign policy to the American people and also to answer their questions,” he said, noting that Rice also travels across the country giving speeches more frequently than her predecessors did.
Bloomberg TV interviewer Al Hunt, who was once a liberal commentator for the Wall Street Journal and CNN, asked Rice about the rash of interviews for a program that will appear this weekend and whether they were tied to the election.
“No, I’m just out doing what I always do, just trying to explain American policy,” Rice said. “I’ve always thought that it’s an important part of the role of the secretary of state to get out and talk to Americans in any way possible about our foreign policy.”
As national security adviser during Bush’s first term, Rice drew fire for giving speeches around the country in crucial battleground states shortly before the 2004 election, a practice none of her predecessors had done. The White House at the time noted that Bush had directed the secretaries of state and defense to avoid getting enmeshed in the presidential campaign. But the White House defended Rice’s speeches, saying “part of the job today of national security adviser is to discuss our nation’s national security policy.”
During her confirmation hearings for the current job, Rice was asked in written questions about her speeches during the 2004 presidential campaign and was asked to confirm she would abstain from activity that might be construed as partisan. “If confirmed as secretary of state, I intend to continue the tradition in that position of not actively participating in public campaign or political events,” Rice wrote back to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Read the rest of this entry »
“Don’t blame me,” says Hoekstra
:sigh: It’s not just the Neo-cons—the entire Conservative movement seems to consist of people who will accept no responsibility for their actions, and are quick to blame everyone else—anyone else. Another case in point: Pete Hoekstra, contemptible US Senator:
Hoekstra Pushed For Publication of Sensitive Nuclear Documents, Blames New York Times, IAEA [anyone but himself - LG]
Yesterday Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-MI), chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, blamed the New York Times and the IAEA for the leak of sensitive Iraqi documents — a “nuclear primer” on how to build an atomic bomb — on a public government website:
Concerns by the New York Times and the IAEA prompted the government to shut down the website. The IAEA, “fearing that the information could help states like Iran develop nuclear arms,” privately protested last week to the American ambassador. The Bush administration shut down the site on Thursday evening, only after the New York Times “asked about complaints from weapons experts and arms-control officials.”
Hoekstra, on the other hand, was responsible for making that information public in the first place. Last November, he and Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS) wrote to Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte and asked him to the post the Iraqi documents.
Hoekstra is now claiming that he has “always been clear that the Director of National Intelligence should take whatever steps necessary to withhold sensitive information.” But in a press release on April 18 — approximately a month after the first documents were made public — Hoekstra issued a news release with no such reservations. He instead acknowledged that posting the information carried “risks, but such risks are minimal.”
Do you feel safer with the GOP running things? Or less safe?
Unique joint editorial in military newspapers
Via several liberal bloggers, this amazing story:
An editorial scheduled to appear on Monday in Army Times, Air Force Times, Navy Times and Marine Corps Times, calls for the resignation of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.
The papers are sold to American servicemen and women. They are published by the Military Times Media Group, which is a subsidiary of Gannett Co., Inc.
Here is the text of the editorial, an advance copy of which we received this afternoon.
—————-
Time for Rumsfeld to go
“So long as our government requires the backing of an aroused and informed public opinion … it is necessary to tell the hard bruising truth.”
That statement was written by Pulitzer Prize-winning war correspondent Marguerite Higgins more than a half-century ago during the Korean War.
But until recently, the “hard bruising” truth about the Iraq war has been difficult to come by from leaders in Washington. One rosy reassurance after another has been handed down by President Bush, Vice President Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld: “mission accomplished,” the insurgency is “in its last throes,” and “back off,” we know what we’re doing, are a few choice examples.
Military leaders generally toed the line, although a few retired generals eventually spoke out from the safety of the sidelines, inciting criticism equally from anti-war types, who thought they should have spoken out while still in uniform, and pro-war foes, who thought the generals should have kept their critiques behind closed doors.
Now, however, a new chorus of criticism is beginning to resonate. Active-duty military leaders are starting to voice misgivings about the war’s planning, execution and dimming prospects for success.
Army Gen. John Abizaid, chief of U.S. Central Command, told a Senate Armed Services Committee in September: “I believe that the sectarian violence is probably as bad as I’ve seen it … and that if not stopped, it is possible that Iraq could move towards civil war.”
Last week, someone leaked to The New York Times a Central Command briefing slide showing an assessment that the civil conflict in Iraq now borders on “critical” and has been sliding toward “chaos” for most of the past year. The strategy in Iraq has been to train an Iraqi army and police force that could gradually take over for U.S. troops in providing for the security of their new government and their nation.
But despite the best efforts of American trainers, the problem of molding a viciously sectarian population into anything resembling a force for national unity has become a losing proposition.
For two years, American sergeants, captains and majors training the Iraqis have told their bosses that Iraqi troops have no sense of national identity, are only in it for the money, don’t show up for duty and cannot sustain themselves.
Meanwhile, colonels and generals have asked their bosses for more troops. Service chiefs have asked for more money.
And all along, Rumsfeld has assured us that things are well in hand.
Now, the president says he’ll stick with Rumsfeld for the balance of his term in the White House.
This is a mistake.
It is one thing for the majority of Americans to think Rumsfeld has failed. But when the nation’s current military leaders start to break publicly with their defense secretary, then it is clear that he is losing control of the institution he ostensibly leads.
These officers have been loyal public promoters of a war policy many privately feared would fail. They have kept their counsel private, adhering to more than two centuries of American tradition of subordination of the military to civilian authority.
And although that tradition, and the officers’ deep sense of honor, prevent them from saying this publicly, more and more of them believe it.
Rumsfeld has lost credibility with the uniformed leadership, with the troops, with Congress and with the public at large. His strategy has failed, and his ability to lead is compromised. And although the blame for our failures in Iraq rests with the secretary, it will be the troops who bear its brunt.
This is not about the midterm elections. Regardless of which party wins Nov. 7, the time has come, Mr. President, to face the hard bruising truth:
Donald Rumsfeld must go.
“Don’t blame me,” say Neo-cons
True to the Conservative principle of never accepting any responsibility and avoiding all accountability, the Neo-cons who pushed for the war in Iraq are now explaining how they were right, but George Bush was (even) more incompetent than they thought. It’s a pretty depressing read, to see grown men try to distance themselves from their own actions, grown men who apparently have never read:
The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ,
Moves on: nor all your Piety nor Wit
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
Nor all your Tears wash out a Word of it.The Rubaiyat, by Omar Khayyam – 11th century
These men made their decisions and put events into motion and now they want to be held blameless. But…
Read their pitiful excuses and evasions here.
UPDATE: Kevin Drum dissects their attempts to evade responsibility quite well.
Don’t talk about the torture, you
The Bush Administration wants a judge to force victims of torture to keep silent about the tortures they endured. Ostensible reason: so terrorists won’t know, for example, that we’re using waterboarding, which obviously we are and the whole world knows, else the terrorists would train their troops to no longer react to being drowned.
Actual reason: so the Bush Administration can torture in secret.
Effects if such a thing happened: victims of torture would not be able to get psychological help later, since they would not be allowed to describe their tortures.
Do not forget that some percentage of those tortured are totally innocent and have nothing whatsoever to do with terrorism. (Two examples that are well known: the Canadian citizen who was kidnapped and sent to Syria to be tortured and imprisioned, and the German citizen kidnapped in Macedonia by the CIA and tortured for some months in a CIA prison in Afghanistan.) I imagine that the Bush Administration is particuarly eager that the innocent victims of their evil policy not be allowed to talk.
The story, from the Washington Post:
The Bush administration has told a federal judge that terrorism suspects held in secret CIA prisons should not be allowed to reveal details of the “alternative interrogation methods” that their captors used to get them to talk.
The government says in new court filings that those interrogation methods are now among the nation’s most sensitive national security secrets and that their release — even to the detainees’ own attorneys — “could reasonably be expected to cause extremely grave damage.” Terrorists could use the information to train in counter-interrogation techniques and foil government efforts to elicit information about their methods and plots, according to government documents submitted to U.S. District Judge Reggie B. Walton on Oct. 26.
The battle over legal rights for terrorism suspects detained for years in CIA prisons centers on Majid Khan, a 26-year-old former Catonsville resident who was one of 14 high-value detainees transferred in September from the “black” sites to the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. A lawyer with the Center for Constitutional Rights, which represents many detainees at Guantanamo, is seeking emergency access to him.
The government, in trying to block lawyers’ access to the 14 detainees, effectively asserts that the detainees’ experiences are a secret that should never be shared with the public.
Because Khan “was detained by CIA in this program, he may have come into possession of information, including locations of detention, conditions of detention, and alternative interrogation techniques that is classified at the TOP SECRET//SCI level,” an affidavit from CIA Information Review Officer Marilyn A. Dorn states, using the acronym for “sensitive compartmented information.”
Gitanjali Gutierrez, an attorney for Khan’s family, responded in a court document yesterday that there is no evidence that Khan had top-secret information. “Rather,” she said, “the executive is attempting to misuse its classification authority . . . to conceal illegal or embarrassing executive conduct.”
Joseph Margulies, a Northwestern University law professor who has represented several detainees at Guantanamo, said the prisoners “can’t even say what our government did to these guys to elicit the statements that are the basis for them being held. Kafka-esque doesn’t do it justice. This is ‘Alice in Wonderland.’ ” Read the rest of this entry »
Some useful Autocorrections
I mentioned earlier that it seemed important to me to use the appropriate diacritical marks. The way you do this in Word is, of course, through Tools, Autocorrect. By using Insert, Symbol you can spell the word correctly by hand, as it were—for example, putting the ñ in “jalapeño”. Then highlight the word and enter it in the Autocorrect table of corrections, so that “jalapeno” will automatically be corrected to “jalapeño”—and you’ll have to make a separate entry to ensure that “jalapenos” is corrected to “jalapeños”.
This same process works for most other words—habañero, sauté, and so on. But what about résumé? You certainly don’t want to transform every occurrence of “resume” to “résumé”. So for that word, I do the Autocorrection on “resumay”, which is what I type when I want “résumé”.
Some other useful Autocorrections:
$e produces €
$y produces ¥
$l produces £
$c produces ¢
Please use this knowledge for good.




