We’re having a very fine discussion of global warming over at ShaveMyFace.com. By no means is there general agreement, except on the point that the debate must be conducted courteously. I offered an analogy that I like enough to spruce up a bit and share.

It was offered in response to this article, in which a semiconductor process engineer suggests that the models used in predicting global warming are quite complex and thus uncertain, and that the wisest course is probably not to rush headlong into action to combat the (possibly illusory) menace, but instead continue on as we are and see what actually develops. He concludes:

The practical experience of numerical modeling in allied fields such as semiconductor process modeling should cause us to question the claimed accuracy for Global Climate Models. The UN’s distortion of historical climate data should further undermine our faith in climate models because such models can only be “tested” against accurate historical data.

In my view, we should adopt the private sector’s practice of placing extremely limited reliance on numerical models for major investment decisions in the absence of confirming test data, that is, climate data which can be easily collected just by waiting.

My analogy:

It’s a little like a non-medical expert (say, a semiconductor process engineer) telling you, “You may or may not have a particular form of an aggressive cancer. The tests given show that you probably do, but some people dispute those tests. The medical profession as a whole are strongly urging that you immediately undertake treatment that would save you if you do have the cancer, but OTOH, you might not need the treatment. The treatment is pervasive—it requires you to change your lifestyle of over-consumption and get physically fit. So it’s not easy—though, of course, even if you don’t have the cancer, the treatment will undoubtedly make you more healthy. But my recommendation is that we just wait, making no serious changes, which will be much easier for you. After a while, we’ll know for sure whether you actually need the treatment. Of course, by then it will be too late, should you in fact have the cancer (as the tests indicate).”

I don’t know about you, but I’d look for a different expert—especially since the expert in this case is NOT a climate scientist but a semiconductor engineer. YMMV.