05.18.08

Nature’s clock reset by man-made global warming

Posted in Business, Daily life, Environment, Global warming, Government, Science at 11:23 am by LeisureGuy

It’s showing up everywhere. Adam Hadhazy in the Scientific American reports:

Starving polar bears are eating one another in the Arctic. Flowers are blooming too soon and dying. The ice caps are melting so swiftly that rising water levels will threaten coastal towns as far away as Florida within several decades. These are just a few examples of the dire consequences of climate change supported by a new analysis in Nature that paints a dark portrait of what a warming world will look like in the years to come.

The researchers assessed 829 geologic phenomena—including melting glaciers—along with nearly 30,000 changes in plants and animals (from bird migration patterns to plummeting penguin populations), and found that about 90 percent of them are in sync with scientists’ predictions about how global warming will alter the planet.

In the past three decades, average global temperatures have risen about 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.6 degree Celsius) and are projected to jump by about 3 degrees F (1.7 degrees C) by the end of the century, says study lead author Cynthia Rosenzweig, who heads the Climate Impacts Group at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies at Columbia University in New York City. “We’ve already seen that a relatively low amount of warming,” she says, “can result in a broad range of changes.”

The unnatural warming spurred on by man-made greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide spewed by cars and coal-powered plants, spell trouble for entire ecosystems. In North America alone, scientists have identified 89 species of plants, such as the American holly, that have blossomed earlier in the spring. In Spain, apple trees bloom 35 days ahead of schedule in response to the higher temperatures. Other wildlife, like the insects that use certain plants for food and the birds that feed on the insects, must then move forward their seasonal stirrings and mating patterns to survive.

To try to compensate for this time shift, some birds such as robins, the classic symbol of winter’s thaw, are returning to Colorado from their migrations some two weeks earlier than in years past. All these changes can throw a food chain out of whack. To wit: some bird species that arrive before the insects reappear may starve to death.

“Around the world, plants and animals are waking up to an earlier alarm clock than they used to,” says study co-author Terry Root, a biologist at Stanford University’s Center for Environmental Science and Policy.

The new research, a compilation of the findings of about 80 previous studies from around the world, also confirms that man—not nature—is to blame for global warming. “Overall, this study adds more meat to the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) conclusions” that people are causing the world to heat up, says Michael Mann, an associate professor and the director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University.

“This study really speaks to the fact,” Rosenzweig says, “that we need to respond and adapt to what’s happening.

2 Comments »

  1. Paulidan said,

    19 May 2008 at 11:53 am

    So if you guys are allowed to make a whole thing on 30 years of data, why when us deniers use 20 you scream cherrypicking?

    Is any of this falsifiable or subject to the laws of scientific method?

  2. LeisureGuy said,

    19 May 2008 at 12:15 pm

    If you’ll look at the temperature/CO2 curves, you see that they go up sharply, so the past 30 years are very different from the 30 years before that.

    Yes, the investigation is done using scientific method: collecting data, making hypotheses, looking for disconfirming data, and the like. Standard practice. Computer modeling is used, but the model’s predictions are checked against actual observations, and—unfortunately—the observations show that things are getting worse faster than the models predicted. I expect that it will be much too late by the time action is taken—thanks in part to the deniers in power.

    Remember, the “guys” you’re referring to are in fact the scientists.

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