Should the CIA meddle in Iran now?
Jeff Stein in Congressional Quarterly:
A half century ago the CIA could bring down an Iranian prime minister with a few rent-a-crowds, well placed payments to key generals and a pliable replacement.
Could it do the same today?
Not likely, but events in Iran have often contradicted the prognostications of Westerners, especially at the CIA.
In August 1978 America’s premier spy agency assured President Jimmy Carter that Iran was "not in a revolutionary, or even pre-revolutionary situation."
Right. Six months later, chanting "Death to America," Islamic revolutionaries drove the U.S.-backed shah into exile.
On Monday tens of thousands of Iranians marched into central Teheran again, this time chanting "Death to the Dictator," evidently in reference to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s proclamation of a reelection landslide — if not to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself.
The marchers torched cars and buses. Shots were fired, killing one demonstrator and wounding others.
In a press conference, Ahmadinejad, clad in his customary windbreaker, blithely compared the demonstrators to unruly fans after a soccer match, who sometimes had to be "given tickets" for unruly behavior.
No one, least of all Ahmadinejad, should be completely surprised if the powers that be toss him overboard. The next two weeks will be critical.
"I think it depends on three factors," Tel Aviv-based Iran analyst Meir Javedanfar told Voice of America.
"Number one, how senior are the people who are going to become involved in the demonstrating; the more senior they are, the more people will become encouraged. Number two; if the demonstrations spread to other cities. I think the more cities that become involved, the more the leadership will take notice.
"And, also, number three; the duration of this. If this continues for another two weeks, I think the Supreme Leader [Khamenei] will have a serious situation on his hands. Until then, we should sit down and watch the developments and see what the Supreme Leader says," Javedanfar said.What should the CIA do? …
