Another report characterizes Egypt and Tunisia as Food Wars
Interesting report in New Scientist:
Tunisia’s government has fallen and Egypt’s is facing insurrection – and this could be just the start. Food and economic analysts are warning that these governments could be the first victims of the global food crisis, and others are similarly vulnerable.
What seems clear is that surging food prices helped trigger bothuprisings and protests elsewhere in north Africa. The region depends on bread, and imports half of its wheat. So when world wheat prices soared by 50 per cent in 2010, Egypt massively increased spending on the cereal to sell to its poorest citizens as subsidised bread.
Yet on private markets in Cairo, bread prices rose by 25 per cent. This especially affected the lower middle class, which Claire Spencer of the London-based think tank Chatham House says is key to the uprisings. While the poorest must keep working to eat, she says, the slightly better-off have more freedom to stage sit-ins.
If food is far from the only reason for discontent in Egypt, it can nonetheless be a trigger, Spencer says. “People are underemployed, can’t start a business or improve their circumstances, are barely feeding their families, and then food prices go up and literally put them on the breadline. It can be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.”
What lessons can be learned? Countries that depend upon food imports and whose people spend one-third or more of their income on food are most vulnerable to increased global food prices, according to an analysis by Japanese investment firm Nomura. In its top 10 are Egypt, Algeria and Morocco, but also Hong Kong, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Tunisia, Romania and Ukraine are in the top 20. “High food prices… [are] a potential source of protests, riots and political tension,” Nomura warns.
And these are pricey times: the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) announced last week that food prices have reached an all-time high, exceeding even the big spike of 2008. This new spike is due to weather-related crop losses in Russia, Australia and Pakistan, high oil prices and speculation. Prices will stay high at least until major harvests in six months, says Abdolreza Abbassian of the FAO. Then the weather will have to be very good, or harvests may not be enough to rebuild stocks and reduce prices. If it’s bad, “we’re one major crop failure short of a real crisis”.
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