Later On

A blog written for those whose interests more or less match mine.

Another graph of recent recessions

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six_recessions3

This one is from Swampland. Note that job losses in this graph are shown in percentage terms rather than absolute numbers, as in Pelosi’s graph. Percentages are more reasonable, since the workforce increases in size from year to year. Their comment:

What do we learn? So far the fall in employment is comparable to that in 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison holds, the declines should end within the next four or five months. But we of course have no idea whether the comparison will hold. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Another lesson brought home by the chart is how weak the recovery from the 2001 recession was. It was a mild recession, but it took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. Setting aside the worst-case scenario of a continued downward employment spiral that puts 1974-1975 and 1981-1982 to shame, a recession that combines a severity akin to that of 1974-1975 and 1981-1982 with a recovery as anemic as 2001-2002-2003-2004-2005 would be not a whole lotta fun.

Written by Leisureguy

9 February 2009 at 9:21 am

Posted in Business, Daily life

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