Later On

A blog written for those whose interests more or less match mine.

Nobel Prize Committee, Meet Your Pals in the Tea Party

with 4 comments

Interesting column by Michael Hirsh in the National Journal:

Who is more irrational: the tea party or the Nobel Prize committee? That’s a pretty close call this week.

Tea party libertarians base much of their view of the world – and their current efforts to blow up Washington – on the simplistic idea that government is always bad and markets are always good. The more freedom, the better for all. The Nobel Prize committee effectively endorsed this concept on Monday by awarding the 2013 prize to the University of Chicago’s Eugene Fama, whose “efficient markets hypothesis” was mocked even by the father of modern free-market economics, Milton Friedman, but which forms a fundamental justification of the world view that tea partiers, many of them unknowingly, live and breathe. That’s the long-since debunked view that markets, especially financial markets, are always rational, so just let ’em rip. No regulation needed. No government needed.

So irrational was the Nobel decision that even the committee second-guessed itself; it simultaneously gave a piece of the 2013 award to Yale’s Robert Shiller, whose life’s work has sought to show that Fama’s theory is “one of the most remarkable errors in the history of economic thought.” (This is perhaps Stockholm’s idea of what Wall Street calls a “hedge.”)

Shiller has developed a field of “behavioral economics” fleshing out John Maynard Keynes’s idea that irrational “animal spirits” drive markets more than policy-makers realize. If we needed any more proof of that, we got it in 2008, when we realized that virtually every Wall Street CEO and the biggest, most sophisticated banks in the world had no clue what they doing and would have destroyed themselves en masse had not the government (yes, the government) stepped in to save them at taxpayer expense.

Why does any of this matter now? Because in spite of the ample evidence before us, we in Washington still live in the free-market fantasy world that Ronald Reagan ushered in, that even President Obama has lamented he has not been able to alter, and which the work of economists such as Fama has propagated. Yes, we know that freer markets are better than “command” economies of the communist ilk. The end of the Cold War proved that as the United States essentially bankrupted the Soviet Union out of existence; even Beijing concedes this, as would the extinct dinosaurs of the Soviet era.

But it’s long past time for the pendulum to swing back to the middle from the extreme conclusion that this means fully free markets always work well. They don’t. The United States is, in truth, not a free-market economy but a “mixed” economy. As the great economist Paul Samuelson once wrote, the end of the Cold War meant only that “victory has been declared in favor of the market-pricing mechanism over the command mechanism of regulatory bureaucracy.” The victor was plainly not pure laissez-faire capitalism but simply a more balanced economy—markets modified by government taxes and government-orchestrated transfers of wealth to limit inequality, and government monetary and fiscal policies to curb recessions and inflation.

The truth is not simple or rational, in other words, and in fact financial markets, most economists have long known, are the least rational of all,contra Fama. Even Milton Friedman didn’t buy Fama’s ideas, one of the late economist’s students, Robert Auerbach, now a professor at the University of Texas at Austin, told me in a 2010 interview. Friedman asked his students: How could it be that all available information is instantly translated into price changes in a completely rational way, as Fama argued in his hugely influential theory, which opened the door to the kind of across-the-board deregulation that led Wall Street to almost destroy the global economy in the mid-2000s? Friedman pointed out that “traders couldn’t make any money if that were true,” Auerbach said.

Ironically, considering that it was tea-party antipathy to Obamacare – to “the government getting involved in health care”—that has put the United States on the precipice of default and economic disaster, some of the best economics work of recent decades has shown that the health care industry is one in which free markets don’t work well. The Nobel-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, . . .

Continue reading. (UPDATED: Original link was to the National Journal, which placed the article behind a paywall before I could blog it. Link now goes to the author’s blog, where you can find and finish the article.)

Written by Leisureguy

19 October 2013 at 10:23 am

Posted in Business, Science

4 Responses

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  1. Very anxious to read more, but link does not work. Apparently you have to subscribe.

    Like

    rbslaughterBob slaughter

    19 October 2013 at 10:50 am

  2. Hah. Between the time I opened the tab (via a link from Paul Krugman’s NY Times blog) and now the National Journal decided to block the public. I’ve updated the link so you can read the article on the author’s own blog:

    http://informingthe99percent.blogspot.com/2013/10/how-economists-and-nobel-prize_16.html

    Like

    LeisureGuy

    19 October 2013 at 11:05 am

  3. Many Thanks. Chicago School Free market mythology will never die.

    Like

    rbslaughterBob slaughter

    19 October 2013 at 11:52 am

  4. The problem is that the “free market solves everything” idea is so simple. The fact that it’s false fails against the ease with which it can be expressed and grasped. “Got a problem? Well, the market will solve that problem because people will rush in to make money fixing the problem, so everything works out. See?” :sigh:

    Like

    LeisureGuy

    19 October 2013 at 11:56 am


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