In the Trump bubble crowd sizes at his rallies are the most effective barometer of public opinion. They mean he’ll win. Polls are dumb, especially when they show he’s losing. He opposed the Iraq War before there was even an Iraq. Public opinion is defined by the mix of white nationalists and white sad sacks who populate his Twitter feed. As I noted, this is all the mindset of the high pressure sale, a spun up reality that exists with little necessary connection to anything outside the bubble of the sale. It’s not counter-reality, just indifferent to reality.
But Trump now needs to operate with and collaborate with people who will face real electorates in November. They know a modern presidential campaign requires $1 billion dollars of funding. They still know it does after Trump insists it only requires $50 million. No one outside the Trump fact bubble believes that.
Here we get back to the simple, critical difference between between the primaries and the general election. Trump supporters exist entirely within the Trump fact bubble. They were more than sufficient to win the Republican primaries. They either believe his claims or are indifferent to their accuracy. The Trump world is based on a self-contained, self-sustaining bullshit feedback loop. Trump isn’t racist. He’s actually the least racist person in America. Hispanics aren’t offended by his racist tirades against Judge Curiel. He’s going to do great with Hispanics! Didn’t you see the new Hispanics for Trump Facebook page? He’ll put California in play and it won’t even be that hard.
Trump can say he’s going to get historically high numbers of African-American votes, but the worried Republican officials he’s talking to know that’s nonsense after he says it just as much as they did before he said it.
Trump’s problem is that the general election puts him in contact with voters outside the Trump bubble and just as important necessary allies (all Republican office holders) who rely on voters outside the Trump fact bubble. Not that many maybe, but enough of them. . .