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A blog written for those whose interests more or less match mine.

The Twelfth Day of Christmas may be very bad

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January 6 is the Twelfth Day of Christmas, ending the Christmas season with the Feast of the Epiphany, commemorating the anniversary of the visit of the Three Magi to view the infant Jesus. This year the date may have a grimmer outcome. David Troy comments on Facebook:

It looks like we have a serious problem emerging. There is a gap between what intelligence analysts and government officials are reporting and what journalists are reporting about our current situation. This may be a potentially catastrophic “failure of imagination” that may lead to dangerous and unpredictable outcomes.

Washington Post’s columnist, the intelligence analyst David Ignatius, shares with increasing alarm that Trump loyalist Kash Patel, recently installed at the Pentagon, may replace Wray at FBI. This may stall important investigations and also threaten intelligence dumps intended to harm political enemies and/or protect allies.

Most alarmingly, he reports that Ezra Cohen-Watnick, whom we have been watching and reporting on here, may replace Gen. Paul Nakasone as head of NSA. This likewise has potential for damaging intelligence dumps.

There is perhaps an unhealthy if understandable focus on the election. There do seem to be efforts to incite violence around DC on January 6th. That violence may spread; it may lead to invocation of the Insurrection Act; there may be calls to invalidate the election and, at Flynn’s urging, re-run the election using “military capabilities.” I rate this as young adult fantasy. The Constitution is clear and the election will not be re-run.

HOWEVER, the actual thing to be on the lookout for here is the final thrust and twist of the knife on the way out the door, and the damage that could ensue. Who benefits? Putin and Trump. Moves that harm the incoming administration’s ability to govern; moves that create chaos and delegitimize American democracy; things that kill Americans through inaction and neglect? All of those things are on the table.

I can’t stress this enough: it’s not about overthrowing the election, it’s about saving face, tearing down as much as possible, creating conditions that favor the maximization of discord and even death.

We have no idea the harms possible with Patel at FBI and with ECW at NSA! The fact that Ignatius is getting the same chatter that we are as lowly OSINT analysts is extremely concerning. The Nashville incident was driven by a 5G fringe lunatic, and is adding momentum to the cult narratives.

We need to close the gap between analysis and reporting immediately and get people within government and media up to speed on the potential for harm here. This is a moment as dangerous as 9/11 (as if every day is not already; difficult to overstate here) and we are suffering from a lack of imagination about what is possible — especially with regards to Iran, as noted by Ignatius. In the end the election is over but there is a high-stakes final roll of the dice. We mustn’t be in denial about the potential for harm.

The article by David Ignatius that Troy references begins:

Not to be alarmist, but we should recognize that the United States will be in the danger zone until the formal certification of Joe Biden’s election victory on Jan. 6, because potential domestic and foreign turmoil could give President Trump an excuse to cling to power.

This threat, while unlikely to materialize, is concerning senior officials, including Republicans who have supported Trump in the past but believe he is now threatening to overstep the constitutional limits on his power. They described a multifaceted campaign by die-hard Trump supporters to use disruptions at home and perhaps threats abroad to advance his interests.

The big showdown is the Jan. 6 gathering of both houses of Congress to formally count the electoral college vote taken on Dec. 14, which Biden won 306 to 232. The certification should be a pro forma event, but a desperate Trump is demanding that House and Senate Republicans challenge the count and block this final, binding affirmation of Biden’s victory before Inauguration Day.

Trump’s last-ditch campaign will almost certainly fail in Congress. The greater danger is on the streets, where pro-Trump forces are already threatening chaos. A pro-Trump group called “Women for America First” has requested a permit for a Jan. 6 rally in Washington, and Trump is already beating the drum: “Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!”

Government officials fear that if violence spreads, Trump could invoke the Insurrection Act to mobilize the military. Then Trump might use “military capabilities” to rerun the Nov. 3 election in swing states, as suggested by Michael Flynn, Trump’s former national security adviser. Trump “could take military . . .

Read the whole thing.

Later in the article:

Another strange Pentagon machination was the proposal Miller floated in mid-December to separate the code-breaking National Security Agency from U.S. Cyber Command, which are both currently headed by Gen. Paul Nakasone. That proposal collapsed because of bipartisan congressional opposition.

But why did Trump loyalists suggest the NSA-Cyber Command split in the first place? Some officials speculate that the White House may have planned to install a new NSA chief, perhaps Ezra Cohen-Watnick, the young conservative recently installed to oversee Pentagon intelligence activities.

With firm control of the NSA and the FBI, the Trump team might then disclose highly sensitive information about the origins of the 2016 Trump Russia investigation. Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe tried to release this sensitive intelligence before the election, despite protests from intelligence chiefs that it would severely damage U.S. national security. Trump retreated under pressure from then-Attorney General William P. Barr, among others.

Trump’s final weeks in office will also be a tinder box because of the danger of turmoil abroad. Iranian-backed militias fired more than 20 rockets last Sunday at the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad, with around nine hitting the compound but inflicting no American casualties. The United States sent intense, high-level messages to Tehran, public and private, warning against any further provocation. The toughest was a Dec. 23 tweet from Trump warning: “If one American is killed, I will hold Iran responsible. Think it over.” State Department and Pentagon officials say Trump’s retaliatory threat is real.

Another potential flash point is just a week away. Jan. 3 marks the first anniversary of the U.S. targeted killing of Quds Force commander Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani and Iraq militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Any new violence could . . .

Written by Leisureguy

27 December 2020 at 7:02 am

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